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International Diplomacy & Conflict
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months)
From Russia to the South China Sea and around the globe, these questions forecast conflict, diplomatic agreements, and how these events will shape our world.
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Crowd Forecast
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Closing
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
524
·
1788
2%
Chance
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Closing
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
173
·
1084
0%
Chance
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
Closing
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
63
·
602
0%
Chance
What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?
Closing
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
89
·
557
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Closing
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
128
·
549
61%
Chance
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
80
·
527
1%
Chance
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
104
·
525
5%
Chance
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
85
·
485
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
85
·
470
4%
Chance
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
59
·
447
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