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Science and Technology

Closing

Jan 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC (1 year)

Forecasting new scientific and technological advancements and their impact on society and governance.

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Crowd Forecast

In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?

Closing Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC · 171 · 504

6%

Chance

In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 76 · 532

What percentage of the U.S.’s renewable energy consumption will come from biofuels in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 105 · 797

In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 81 · 463

How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 43 · 86

By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 77 · 453

4%

Chance

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Closing Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 178 · 414

54%

Chance