Factor
China military aggression
Metrics:
Chance China shoots at another country’s vessel in South China Sea
Chance China seizes Taiwanese-occupied feature in South China Sea
Chance of China military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan
Number of Japanese air force responses to Chinese incursions of Japanese air space
82% of stakeholders believe an increase in China military aggression would improve the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship
China Military Aggression
Metric:
Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?
Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
- Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 24 percent, with no correlation between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship.
- Crowd's view. The crowd thinks this event is less likely (15 percent) than the stakeholders (24 percent). The crowd’s lower forecast indicates an expectation of lower China military aggression. According to the stakeholder consensus, this has negative implications for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship.
China Military Aggression
Metric:
Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?
Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
- Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 16 percent, with a negative correlation (-0.3) between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship. The improve cohort’s forecast (13 percent) is lower than the same/worse cohort’s forecast (21 percent), indicating that the improve cohort expects lower China military aggression. The direction of cohort divergence for this metric is unexpected.
- Crowd's view. The crowd thinks this event is less likely (7 percent) than both stakeholder cohorts. The crowd’s lower forecast indicates an expectation of lower China military aggression. According to the stakeholder consensus, this has negative implications for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship.
China Military Aggression
Metric:
Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?
Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
- Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 9 percent, with no correlation between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship.
- Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast (9 percent) is the same as the stakeholders’ forecast.
China Military Aggression
Metric:
How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?
Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
- Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 595 Japanese Air Force responses in 2023, with a very weak (0.1) positive correlation between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship.
- Crowd's view. The crowd forecasts a similar trend to the stakeholders. The crowd expects the number of Japanese Air Force responses to increase year-to-year, reaching 630 in 2023.
More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.