samuel-da-shadrach
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
$0
10%
More than $0 but less than $82 million
60%
Between $82 million and $87 million, inclusive
30%
More than $87 million

OUTSIDE VIEW

Most of my time went in looking for data

2022 enacted

$1,300M for innovation and improvement account

of which $234M for EIR

of which $82M for STEAM + CS

House bill for 2023

Committee recomends $1,484M for innovation and improvement account

Of which recommends $384M for EIR program

Of which recommends $87M for STEAM + CS

Senate bill for 2023

Recommends $1,361M for innovation and impr. acc.

Of which recommends $360M for EIR

Amount for STEAM + CS not specified

Find latest press releases by house appropriations committee here:

https://appropriations.house.gov/subcommittees/labor-health-and-human-services-education-and-related-agencies-117th-congress/congress_press_release

Signed by house appropriations committee in June 2022 (for FY23)

https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AP/AP00/20220630/114968/BILLS-117-FC-AP-FY2023-AP00-LHHS.pdf

$1,330M for innovation and impr.

Copy-pasting the breakdown provided in this report because I do not know how to decrypt this. See bottom of my comment [1]

What are these titles and subparts referring to, and how do they map to STEAM+CS budget? Here are the titles of the ESEA:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elementary_and_Secondary_Education_Act#Title_II

Amounts specified: $194M, $652.5M, $384M, $8M, $100M

Signed by house appropriations committee in July 2021 (for FY22)

https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AP/AP00/20210715/113908/BILLS-117--AP--AP00-FY2022LHHSSubcommitteeAppropriationsBill.pdf

$1,297M for innovation and improvement

Breakdown not clear

Amounts specified: $300.5M, $642.8M, $254M, $100M

Could not find data (LHHE appropriations bill) for years prior to FY22 in the limited time I spent trying to find it. Older data would be useful for outside view forecast

INSIDE VIEW

TIL US House has democratic majority (220 dems 211 reps) whereas Senate has more republicans (48 dems 50 reps and 2 independents)

Possibly this means Senate recommendation will be slightly lower than house recommendation? Do not know

Spent some time trying to understand how committees and subcommittees work, not sure if I did.

Appropriation decisions need to be passed by both house and senate, hence final amounts will, I'm guessing, depend on whichever of the two pass a lower amount.

Will not have more time right now to dedicate to this question


Forecasting heavy weight on $82M to $87M inclusive, because that seems the range in which most figures are mentioned. The default if there is delay in passing of bill is also this bin, although this imo unlikely (<10% likelihood, but I haven't seen historical data for this either). Budgets tend to increase by default (if measured in dollars) due to inflation, hence putting some weight on $87M. Other reason for $87M is the optimistic house bill. There is no available reason for budget to go below $82M, only reason is something unknown.




[1] See copy-pasted stuff from appropriations-committee signed document.

"For carrying out activities authorized by subparts 1,

9 3 and 4 of part B of title II, and parts C, D, and E and

10 subparts 1 and 4 of part F of title IV of the ESEA,

11 $1,330,500,000: Provided, That $194,000,000 shall be for

12 subparts 1, 3 and 4 of part B of title II and shall be made

13 available without regard to sections 2201, 2231(b) and

14 2241: Provided further, That $652,500,000 shall be for

15 parts C, D, and E and subpart 4 of part F of title IV,

16 and shall be made available without regard to sections

17 4311, 4409(a), and 4601 of the ESEA: Provided further,

18 That section 4303(d)(3)(A)(i) shall not apply to the funds

19 available for part C of title IV: Provided further, That not20 withstanding section 4601(b), $384,000,000 shall be

21 available through December 31, 2023 for subpart 1 of

22 part F of title IV: Provided further, That of the funds

23 available for subpart 4 of part F of title I not less than

24 $8,000,000 shall be for continuation grants for eligible na25 tional nonprofit organizations, as described in the ApplicaVerDate Nov 24 2008 13:15 Jun 24, 2022 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00149 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6201 C:\USERS\APAUL\APPDATA\ROAMING\SOFTQUAD\XMETAL\11.0\GEN\C\L230624.XML

June 24, 2022 (1:15 p.m.)

H:\8-LABOR HHS ED\117TH CONG, 2ND SESSION\HOUSE SUBCOMMITTEE\BILL TURNS\XML\L230624.XML

L:\VA\062422\A062422.004.xml

150

1 tions for New Awards; Assistance for Arts Education Pro2 gram—Arts in Education National Program published in

3 the Federal Register on May 7, 2018, for activities de4 scribed under section 4642(a)(1)(C): Provided further,

5 That $100,000,000 shall be for competitive grants to local

6 educational agencies and State educational agencies to re7 duce racial and socioeconomic segregation across and

8 within school districts. "


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