Could not find data (LHHE appropriations bill) for years prior to FY22 in the limited time I spent trying to find it. Older data would be useful for outside view forecast
INSIDE VIEW
TIL US House has democratic majority (220 dems 211 reps) whereas Senate has more republicans (48 dems 50 reps and 2 independents)
Possibly this means Senate recommendation will be slightly lower than house recommendation? Do not know
Spent some time trying to understand how committees and subcommittees work, not sure if I did.
Appropriation decisions need to be passed by both house and senate, hence final amounts will, I'm guessing, depend on whichever of the two pass a lower amount.
Will not have more time right now to dedicate to this question
Forecasting heavy weight on $82M to $87M inclusive, because that seems the range in which most figures are mentioned. The default if there is delay in passing of bill is also this bin, although this imo unlikely (<10% likelihood, but I haven't seen historical data for this either). Budgets tend to increase by default (if measured in dollars) due to inflation, hence putting some weight on $87M. Other reason for $87M is the optimistic house bill. There is no available reason for budget to go below $82M, only reason is something unknown.
[1] See copy-pasted stuff from appropriations-committee signed document.
"For carrying out activities authorized by subparts 1,
9 3 and 4 of part B of title II, and parts C, D, and E and
10 subparts 1 and 4 of part F of title IV of the ESEA,
11 $1,330,500,000: Provided, That $194,000,000 shall be for
12 subparts 1, 3 and 4 of part B of title II and shall be made
13 available without regard to sections 2201, 2231(b) and
14 2241: Provided further, That $652,500,000 shall be for
15 parts C, D, and E and subpart 4 of part F of title IV,
16 and shall be made available without regard to sections
17 4311, 4409(a), and 4601 of the ESEA: Provided further,
18 That section 4303(d)(3)(A)(i) shall not apply to the funds
19 available for part C of title IV: Provided further, That not20 withstanding section 4601(b), $384,000,000 shall be
21 available through December 31, 2023 for subpart 1 of
22 part F of title IV: Provided further, That of the funds
23 available for subpart 4 of part F of title I not less than
24 $8,000,000 shall be for continuation grants for eligible na25 tional nonprofit organizations, as described in the ApplicaVerDate Nov 24 2008 13:15 Jun 24, 2022 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00149 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6201 C:\USERS\APAUL\APPDATA\ROAMING\SOFTQUAD\XMETAL\11.0\GEN\C\L230624.XML
OUTSIDE VIEW
Most of my time went in looking for data
2022 enacted
$1,300M for innovation and improvement account
of which $234M for EIR
of which $82M for STEAM + CS
House bill for 2023
Committee recomends $1,484M for innovation and improvement account
Of which recommends $384M for EIR program
Of which recommends $87M for STEAM + CS
Senate bill for 2023
Recommends $1,361M for innovation and impr. acc.
Of which recommends $360M for EIR
Amount for STEAM + CS not specified
Find latest press releases by house appropriations committee here:
https://appropriations.house.gov/subcommittees/labor-health-and-human-services-education-and-related-agencies-117th-congress/congress_press_release
Signed by house appropriations committee in June 2022 (for FY23)
https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AP/AP00/20220630/114968/BILLS-117-FC-AP-FY2023-AP00-LHHS.pdf
$1,330M for innovation and impr.
Copy-pasting the breakdown provided in this report because I do not know how to decrypt this. See bottom of my comment [1]
What are these titles and subparts referring to, and how do they map to STEAM+CS budget? Here are the titles of the ESEA:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elementary_and_Secondary_Education_Act#Title_II
Amounts specified: $194M, $652.5M, $384M, $8M, $100M
Signed by house appropriations committee in July 2021 (for FY22)
https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AP/AP00/20210715/113908/BILLS-117--AP--AP00-FY2022LHHSSubcommitteeAppropriationsBill.pdf
$1,297M for innovation and improvement
Breakdown not clear
Amounts specified: $300.5M, $642.8M, $254M, $100M
Could not find data (LHHE appropriations bill) for years prior to FY22 in the limited time I spent trying to find it. Older data would be useful for outside view forecast
INSIDE VIEW
TIL US House has democratic majority (220 dems 211 reps) whereas Senate has more republicans (48 dems 50 reps and 2 independents)
Possibly this means Senate recommendation will be slightly lower than house recommendation? Do not know
Spent some time trying to understand how committees and subcommittees work, not sure if I did.
Appropriation decisions need to be passed by both house and senate, hence final amounts will, I'm guessing, depend on whichever of the two pass a lower amount.
Will not have more time right now to dedicate to this question
Forecasting heavy weight on $82M to $87M inclusive, because that seems the range in which most figures are mentioned. The default if there is delay in passing of bill is also this bin, although this imo unlikely (<10% likelihood, but I haven't seen historical data for this either). Budgets tend to increase by default (if measured in dollars) due to inflation, hence putting some weight on $87M. Other reason for $87M is the optimistic house bill. There is no available reason for budget to go below $82M, only reason is something unknown.
[1] See copy-pasted stuff from appropriations-committee signed document.
"For carrying out activities authorized by subparts 1,
9 3 and 4 of part B of title II, and parts C, D, and E and
10 subparts 1 and 4 of part F of title IV of the ESEA,
11 $1,330,500,000: Provided, That $194,000,000 shall be for
12 subparts 1, 3 and 4 of part B of title II and shall be made
13 available without regard to sections 2201, 2231(b) and
14 2241: Provided further, That $652,500,000 shall be for
15 parts C, D, and E and subpart 4 of part F of title IV,
16 and shall be made available without regard to sections
17 4311, 4409(a), and 4601 of the ESEA: Provided further,
18 That section 4303(d)(3)(A)(i) shall not apply to the funds
19 available for part C of title IV: Provided further, That not20 withstanding section 4601(b), $384,000,000 shall be
21 available through December 31, 2023 for subpart 1 of
22 part F of title IV: Provided further, That of the funds
23 available for subpart 4 of part F of title I not less than
24 $8,000,000 shall be for continuation grants for eligible na25 tional nonprofit organizations, as described in the ApplicaVerDate Nov 24 2008 13:15 Jun 24, 2022 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00149 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6201 C:\USERS\APAUL\APPDATA\ROAMING\SOFTQUAD\XMETAL\11.0\GEN\C\L230624.XML
June 24, 2022 (1:15 p.m.)
H:\8-LABOR HHS ED\117TH CONG, 2ND SESSION\HOUSE SUBCOMMITTEE\BILL TURNS\XML\L230624.XML
L:\VA\062422\A062422.004.xml
150
1 tions for New Awards; Assistance for Arts Education Pro2 gram—Arts in Education National Program published in
3 the Federal Register on May 7, 2018, for activities de4 scribed under section 4642(a)(1)(C): Provided further,
5 That $100,000,000 shall be for competitive grants to local
6 educational agencies and State educational agencies to re7 duce racial and socioeconomic segregation across and
8 within school districts. "