First, it's a very tight timeline of just a month and a half. This warrants all around very low probability.
Then, none of these countries wants to really antagonize China even in the face of US pressure. They know keenly that they rely on trade with China.
Thus I think of a base rate of 2% for each country. As NL is further away and less dependent on China trade, I double the odds there.
Some wildcard country might join out of pure symbolism, so the odds for another country that's not listed are hard to parse. But I'd say they are less than 20%
First, it's a very tight timeline of just a month and a half. This warrants all around very low probability.
Then, none of these countries wants to really antagonize China even in the face of US pressure. They know keenly that they rely on trade with China.
Thus I think of a base rate of 2% for each country. As NL is further away and less dependent on China trade, I double the odds there.
Some wildcard country might join out of pure symbolism, so the odds for another country that's not listed are hard to parse. But I'd say they are less than 20%