johnnycaffeine
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
93% (+3%)
Less than 20%
7% (-2%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
0% (-1%)
More than or equal to 24%

As we now have the data for December 2022 (as far as I can tell), we finished out that month at 19.1%, up slightly from 18.9% for December 2021. Unless something changes fairly drastically, it looks like below 20% is the most likely outcome. Solar should also continue its exponential growth for another year, which will further expand the denominator for total renewable energy by another 50 or so. 

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