I go down a bit based on the feedback I got from @belikewaterhere. I believe that developing such a process is difficult and will take time. I am also not that sure that there will be huge incentives for United to test it quickly - they have already done this once, so the PR value of repeating this with SJF from another producer might not be that high for United itself. From the other hand they invested in Cemvita and some good press would likely benefit the business. But as @DKC and @belikewater pointed out United made several investments in companies with prospects of developing Sustainable Jet Fuel, and I agree that this is long-term investment and even if Cemvita would have the process ready and would be able to produce this much of Sustainable Jet Fuel, and United would be interested in another test even if this jet fuel will be the same in a chemical sense as the one they already use, then Cemvita might be competing for United resources and plane testing team time with other projects.
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Why might you be wrong?
Cemvita might be more ready with the process than I thought, but still, there should be some announcements about the process being developed, planned testing etc. before the actual test takes place, and I just checked and saw no new news about that.
Why do you think you're right?
19%->16%
I go down a bit based on the feedback I got from @belikewater here. I believe that developing such a process is difficult and will take time. I am also not that sure that there will be huge incentives for United to test it quickly - they have already done this once, so the PR value of repeating this with SJF from another producer might not be that high for United itself. From the other hand they invested in Cemvita and some good press would likely benefit the business. But as @DKC and @belikewater pointed out United made several investments in companies with prospects of developing Sustainable Jet Fuel, and I agree that this is long-term investment and even if Cemvita would have the process ready and would be able to produce this much of Sustainable Jet Fuel, and United would be interested in another test even if this jet fuel will be the same in a chemical sense as the one they already use, then Cemvita might be competing for United resources and plane testing team time with other projects.
Why might you be wrong?