EA College Forecasting Tournament
How to begin forecasting
- Sign up as a forecaster at https://infer-pub.com
- Once you have a username, let your team host know (Team hosts: see how to create your teams below.)
- Find the questions that qualify for the tournament tagged as "EA College Tournament"
Select a question you would like to forecast on, read through the background information, and enter the probability (0-100%) an outcome has of occurring. You’ll also be asked to enter a rationale to explain why you entered that particular probability before you submit your forecast.
- Need help? Click the Forecasting Tutorial button – ⓘ – in the upper right of any question page. For more information about forecasting best practices, see how to approach an initial probabilistic forecast.
Team hosts: How to create your team
- Log in and click the Create a Team link under “My Team”
- Enter a team name and the usernames of everyone on your team. Be sure to include your school’s name in the team name, so we can identify you!
- Submit your request – you can always add more teammates later
- An Admin will accept your request within 24 hrs
How to interact with your team
You will be able to interact with members of your team in different areas of the site, for example:
- Go to My team on the top navigation to see other users on your team, their activity, and start general discussions.
- Within any question’s page (below the forecasting interface), go to the My team tab to start discussions that only other members of your team can see and compare your team’s aggregate consensus to the crowd’s.
- From the Leaderboards in the top nav, you can see general team rankings, which are updated anytime a question is scored. Note that because INFER’s team leaderboard ranking takes into account all scored questions – and just the qualifying questions for the EA tournament – INFER will be calculating EA team rankings separately.
INFER is a forecasting program run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS), a university affiliated research center (UARC) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.