DKC

I don't expect much change in the next month.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/17/iraqs-dangerous-balancing-act-between-iran-and-the-us

Especially after...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68863981

I'm not ready to zero this out yet. A lot could happen in 7 months. But I think this Vox article said it best:

"More fundamentally, a group that few outside the Middle East had given much thought to until a few months ago has, through these attacks, achieved a global profile and shown it can strike at the very heart of global capitalism while resisting the most powerful militaries in the world. Is it really just going to give that up?"

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/24094638/houthis-red-sea-yemen-gaza-israel

Affirming.

Affirming. 

I believe as soon as the optics are better, (a peace treaty, Netanyahu withdrawing IDF post-Rafah) Indonesia will normalize. It is just a bit sticky right now the Gaza Palestinians so obviously suffering horrific conditions.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-796514

Indonesia is expected to normalize ties with Israel as part of its bid to become the 39th member of the OECD, a diplomatic source revealed on Thursday.

The Southeast Asian nation is home to the largest Muslim population of any country. Its normalization with Israel would send a powerful signal of acceptance for the Jewish state at a time when it is facing increased isolation due to the Gaza war.

The potential for Israeli-Indonesian normalization came about because all Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development countries, including Israel, have to approve its membership bid to that international economic organization.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/19/arab-states-israel-iran-attack-saudi-arabia-jordan-uae/

But no less important is that, for moderate Arab powers, Israel has become a key economic partner—indeed, for Jordan and Egypt, Israel is an economic lifeline. That goes a long way toward explaining why six months into the war in Gaza, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have taken almost no concrete steps against Israel. When Turkey finally did something, announcing on April 9 that it was banning a wide range of exports to Israel, no Arab country followed suit.

...

That said, the Saudis appear less convinced than the Emiratis that Israel has an important role to play in the new Middle East. But as the normalization talks that got underway last year demonstrated, Riyadh is willing to recognize Israel as part of a wider deal with the United States, something that would have been unimaginable a decade ago. While the war in Gaza has disrupted the talks and raised the price the Saudis are demanding from Israel on the Palestinian issue, Riyadh has signaled it is still willing to move forward.

...

Fortunately for the future of these relationships, it appears that the war in Gaza is winding down. It is by no means certain that it won’t re-ignite with an assault on Rafah, as Israel has threatened, or that the low-intensity conflict between Israel and Hezbollah won’t spiral into a full-fledged war. But for now, as a testament to the prioritizing of realpolitik and economic interest by Arab leaders, these ties have stood the test.

The Junta will not give up easily, but it is starting to look like they are on their way out. IMHO Whether an opposition army can prevail and then organize an election in the next 14 months seems unlikely to me though.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/12/the-fall-of-myawaddy-myanmars-gateway-to-thailand-and-the-world

FTA:

But in all that time, it has remained in the hands of government control, aside from a few minor tussles, with an understanding from the ethnic armed organisations based nearby that to unbalance power in the city was to threaten a vital economic portal for all of Myanmar.

That the town has now fallen to forces led by the Karen ethnic army, indicates that in the current civil war, new battle lines have been drawn.

For the moment the town is relatively unscathed by the fighting of the last month, but thousands of residents are fleeing into Thailand, fearing the military under Senior General Min Aung Hlaing will hit back with air strikes now that ground troops have gone.

Affirming based on reports of newly installed equipment that increases enrichment output.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/10/iran-nuclear-bomb-iaea-fordow/

FTA:

The inspectors’ latest trek, in February, yielded the usual matrices of readings and measurements, couched in the clinical language of a U.N. nuclear watchdog report. But within the document’s dry prose were indications of alarming change.

In factory chambers that had ceased making enriched uranium under a 2015 nuclear accord, the inspectors now witnessed frenzied activity: newly installed equipment, producing enriched uranium at ever-faster speeds, and an expansion underway that could soon double the plant’s output.

...

Iran recently has sought to dilute some of its highly enriched uranium, signaling, in the view of U.S. officials, that it is seeking to avoid a conflict by self-imposing limits on its supply of near-weapons-grade fuel. But Fordow’s machines are making highly enriched uranium at a faster rate than ever before, and the country’s combined stocks of uranium fuel continue to increase, records show. The trend is unmistakable: From interviews with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials at the nuclear watchdog’s Vienna headquarters and with more than a dozen current and former U.S. and European intelligence and security officials — many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters — the emerging view is one of Iran advancing slowly but confidently, accumulating the means for a future weapon while making no overt move to build one.

Affirming.

Health appears good. Opposition has been killed or imprisoned. He isn't going anywhere soon.