45th
Accuracy Rank

Hobbes

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-0.0

Relative Brier Score

10

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 4 10 232 10 312
Comments 0 1 26 0 26
Questions Forecasted 4 8 52 22 73
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 19 1 21
 Definitions
New Prediction
Hobbes
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
100%
Japan
100%
The Netherlands
12%
South Korea
5%
Any other country not listed

The US [1] is seemingly not asking South Korea to join, and as such it seems highly unlikely that it will before the end of the period.

Furthermore, the rationale the US has given is the ability of the Netherlands and Japan to produce high end chips without the need for US input. Other countries do not have this capacity and therefore are also likely to not be asked to join.

Japan and the Netherlands have seemingly already agreed to join. [2]

[1] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3199299/south-korea-caught-middle-us-china-chip-war-american-export-control-requests-unlikely
[2] https://www.reuters.com/technology/japan-netherlands-join-us-china-chip-controls-bloomberg-2023-01-27/

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New Prediction

The consensus seems far too low, but as someone who has consistently held that this won't happen I'll be damned if I'm going to end up on the wrong side of it.

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New Prediction

Adjusting downwards due to passage of time.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The protests appear to have been resolved for now without any loss of life. [1] The swift arrest of perpetrators is likely to discourage others. Reverting to previous low estimate, as it appears very unlikely the condition will trigger.

[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/9/hundreds-arrested-as-brazil-investigates-riots-by-bolsonaro-fans

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Why might you be wrong?

It is possible, especially connected to trials of the protestors, further protests/riots may break out and need to be put down with lethal force.

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New Prediction

Wrong again, I suppose. Bolsonaro supporters appear to be storming the legislature, despite him no longer being in the country. Obviously not clear that the result will be above the threshold if the incident is contained. Either way, significant upward adjustment called for.

[1] https://twitter.com/pedroponciobr/status/1612154748949364739

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New Prediction

Over-compensating slightly. We've passed the inauguration now, and it would appear on balance the bombing attack has made further casualties less likely as Bolsonaro has condemned it [1]. It seems highly likely unless there are major changes that this trigger.

[1] https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/reuters/brazil-s-bolsonaro-lands-in-florida--avoiding-lula-handover/48171158

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Hobbes
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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