Hobbes

The US [1] is seemingly not asking South Korea to join, and as such it seems highly unlikely that it will before the end of the period.

Furthermore, the rationale the US has given is the ability of the Netherlands and Japan to produce high end chips without the need for US input. Other countries do not have this capacity and therefore are also likely to not be asked to join.

Japan and the Netherlands have seemingly already agreed to join. [2]

[1] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3199299/south-korea-caught-middle-us-china-chip-war-american-export-control-requests-unlikely
[2] https://www.reuters.com/technology/japan-netherlands-join-us-china-chip-controls-bloomberg-2023-01-27/

The consensus seems far too low, but as someone who has consistently held that this won't happen I'll be damned if I'm going to end up on the wrong side of it.

Adjusting downwards due to passage of time.

The protests appear to have been resolved for now without any loss of life. [1] The swift arrest of perpetrators is likely to discourage others. Reverting to previous low estimate, as it appears very unlikely the condition will trigger.

[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/9/hundreds-arrested-as-brazil-investigates-riots-by-bolsonaro-fans

Wrong again, I suppose. Bolsonaro supporters appear to be storming the legislature, despite him no longer being in the country. Obviously not clear that the result will be above the threshold if the incident is contained. Either way, significant upward adjustment called for.

[1] https://twitter.com/pedroponciobr/status/1612154748949364739

Over-compensating slightly. We've passed the inauguration now, and it would appear on balance the bombing attack has made further casualties less likely as Bolsonaro has condemned it [1]. It seems highly likely unless there are major changes that this trigger.

[1] https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/reuters/brazil-s-bolsonaro-lands-in-florida--avoiding-lula-handover/48171158