Forecasted Questions
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2024 09:34AM UTC
(17 days ago)
Apr 07, 2024 09:34AM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 89% | 89% | +0% | +4% |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 11% | 10% | +1% | -3% |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2024 05:52PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Apr 12, 2024 05:52PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 15% | -10% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 85% | +10% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(7 days from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(7 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2024 05:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Apr 12, 2024 05:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(7 days from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(7 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2024 05:56PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Apr 12, 2024 05:56PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 18, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Apr 18, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +0% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 18, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Apr 18, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(7 days from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(7 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 18, 2024 02:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Apr 18, 2024 02:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 18, 2024 02:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Apr 18, 2024 02:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 54% | +1% | -3% |
| No | 45% | 46% | -1% | +3% |
Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(7 days from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(7 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2024 05:05PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Apr 19, 2024 05:05PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | 100% | -1% | +19% |
| No | 1% | 0% | +1% | -19% |