still think it's more likely than not, but could easily see it never materializing
-0.305534
Relative Brier Score
282
Forecasts
59
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 21 | 246 | 64 | 604 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 61 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 10 | 34 | 12 | 76 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 118 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(-13%)
Yes
45%
(+13%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
I should probably go to 0%, but leaving 1% in case I'm missing something.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
lowering with time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
would be happy to be wrong about this, but I think the chance is very close to 0 at this point.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
95%
(+5%)
No
lowering with time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
68%
(-2%)
Yes
32%
(+2%)
No
Continuing to lower as time progresses.
Files
I agree with @ScottEastman 's assessment.