It's really about whether the extra incentive will show up in time.
-0.046
Relative Brier Score
138
Forecasts
27
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 27 | 304 | 138 | 396 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 43 | 7 | 43 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 9 | 45 | 17 | 52 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 78 | 27 | 84 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Less than or equal to 106
50%
(+10%)
Between 107 and 111, inclusive
50%
(-10%)
Between 112 and 116, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 117
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
(+0%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
1%
(+0%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
99%
(+0%)
Not before 1Q 2024
No signs of any change since my last forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Less than or equal to 106
40%
(+5%)
Between 107 and 111, inclusive
60%
(-5%)
Between 112 and 116, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 117
lowering bin 3 since there aren't a lot of days left for the new incentive @johnnycaffeine mentioned to make it across the line.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
lowering with time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Less than or equal to 106
35%
(-20%)
Between 107 and 111, inclusive
65%
(+20%)
Between 112 and 116, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 117
As per @johnnycaffeine 's comment another incentive is signed and is just a matter of whether it's added.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Less than or equal to 106
55%
(-15%)
Between 107 and 111, inclusive
45%
(+15%)
Between 112 and 116, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 117
Moving back based on @johnnycaffeine 's comments
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Less than or equal to 106
70%
(+5%)
Between 107 and 111, inclusive
30%
(-5%)
Between 112 and 116, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 117
Still at 111
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(-3%)
IBM Corporation
7%
(-3%)
BrainChip Holdings Ltd.
2%
(+0%)
Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.
lowering with time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-1%)
Intel
moving down with the crowd
Files
It seems it would require something drastic to change for this to happen. I could contrive a few narratives of how this might happen, but they're all very unlikely. I'm probably around 1.5%, and I'll probably lower again in a month or so if I don't see any changes.