Decreasing a bit for time passed and because the same basic dynamics I outlined previously hold.
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 69 | 0 | 78 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 22 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Yes
Arizona news (upgrading plant) makes another major announcement less likely. And we are almost to the end of the year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-2%)
Yes
Time passed, no more news. Unlikely for all the reasons stated previously
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-3%)
Yes
shifting for time passed and current consensus.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-3%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Nudging this down: capital investments being cut back due to dropping demand. An announcement could still come, but they're going to be extra careful with investments these next couple of quarters
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm forecasting based on declining demand = declining investment = lower likelihood of new plant announcement. If I'm wrong, it could be that the news I'm going off of actually implies more need to build demand in Western markets, and that a plant in Germany is part of that pivot.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
29%
(+0%)
Intel
59%
(+0%)
Samsung
10%
(+0%)
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
2%
(+0%)
Other
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Extremely unlikely and something Russia and the West want to avoid. Less deadly forms of escalation between Russia and NATO are more plausible, and April isn't that far away.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Might just be not appreciating how conflicts can spiral out of control.
Files
I'm imagining steep q3 and q4 drops here, roughly half of H12022. I expect VC picks back in up in 2023, but more likely the back half of the year and since this a rolling sum it operates with a lag.