Relative Brier Score
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Out of time
Not enough time left
Updating for time passed. Very possible Japan announces later this year but the deadline is nearly here.
Well, I was wrong: the Netherlands made an announcement per Reuters. Upping the chances of Japan doing so, accordingly.
Why do you think you're right?
There will be announcements eventually for Japan and the Netherlands, but probably not in time.
“It could take several months for Japan and the Netherlands to implement the restrictions as they need to prepare domestic legislation,” one INFER forecaster noted, citing reporting from Bloomberg. And there’s at least some possibility of an ally agreeing to a deal but not announcing it.
^from a post I wrote for INFER. https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/us-china-export-controls
And here is a new piece that also suggests very low chance:
The lack of leaks is happening for the same reason the administration was able to pull the deal off: they take allies’ concerns—including a desire for secrecy—seriously...
...The full details are unlikely to be known until the Dutch and Japanese governments publish their updated export controls regulations, which will take months. In the case of Dutch export controls, some types of policy changes might never be published at all, such as changing the policy for reviewing certain types of export license applications from “case by case” to “presumption of denial.”
Why might you be wrong?
Odds are still in favor of announcements by Japan and the Netherlands eventually -- so totally possible they do end up saying something that qualifies soon even as details are getting ironed out. Just unlikely.
I'm imagining steep q3 and q4 drops here, roughly half of H12022. I expect VC picks back in up in 2023, but more likely the back half of the year and since this a rolling sum it operates with a lag.
Decreasing a bit for time passed and because the same basic dynamics I outlined previously hold.