Confirmed previous forecast
-0.001
Relative Brier Score
32
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 32 | 184 | 32 | 184 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 31 | 69 | 31 | 69 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
28%
(+0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 5
100%
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 8
following the brilliant analysis by @tango
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
IBM Corporation
70%
BrainChip Holdings Ltd.
0%
Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.
highly unlikely qualcomm is doing so
and a new announcement from brainchip might be coming soon
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than 20%
0%
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
0%
More than or equal to 24%
Seeing the current trends, pretty sure that it's going to be below 20%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
following @Columbus .
*18 fatalities so far, 800 by August 31 are unrealistic*
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
0
60%
1
40%
2
0%
More than or equal to 3
no incentive as such for bio VCs to get into this
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files