RyanBeck

Down on passage of time.

It's getting close enough that I think the chances of a change of course are negligible.

Down on passage of time and likelihood that the listed countries won't want to positively associate with Israel during and immediately after the war with Hamas.

Confirming last forecast.

I'm at 30% currently, I think the base rate for this is already pretty significant, and I think the Hamas attack raises it quite a bit. I feel that Israel will want to retaliate, and that their history of attacks shows that the influence of the US and other western countries doesn't seem to have prevented them before. I'm staying below 50% though to defer a bit to the crowd and also because 6 months isn't too long, and attacks could be against non-missile related facilities.

It's possible that Israel will adhere more to the US advice for caution because they want US aid and support. Though I think given the proxy wars happening in the region and strikes against US forces from Iranian backed militias that the US might not be particularly opposed to covert strikes against Israel. I think they would mostly be opposed to overt strikes that could more clearly lead to escalation with Iran.

Here's a helpful list of attacks, though most of them aren't on missile facilities: https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2022/aug/11/timeline-israeli-attacks-iran

I think the current crowd forecast seems right to me. I don't think it's in Iran's interest to leave. Even if the deal remains essentially in shambles, it doesn't seem like it would benefit Iran to leave. They might as well continue trying to get the west to reach a compromise with them, even if the prospects are very unlikely.

Wow 2023 is almost at the end already and I realized I haven't been decreasing on passage of time. Going down to 2%, I think it's very unlikely this has been going on in secret and very unlikely even if it were that it would be ready for public use by the end of the year.

Updating down on passage of time and lack of new developments. The latest article I found is from a couple days ago, and doesn't report any promising developments. I think there's about a month remaining for news to break of an upcoming new attempt after which the time would be too short for it to happen this year.

Down on passage of time.