35th
Accuracy Rank

TrishBytes

-0.198281

Relative Brier Score

47

Forecasts

27

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 8 94 47 364
Comments 0 1 12 3 64
Questions Forecasted 0 8 20 14 72
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 4 88 27 187
 Definitions
New Prediction
TrishBytes
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Jul 1, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025
95%
No
Jul 1, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025

Starting with a low probability of a yes. 

Why?

First, the situation in Gaza, and Netanyahu's unwillingness to budge from a maximalist position, which will make a true two-state solution difficult, let alone a humanitarian pause.

- The crowd forecast on the likelihood of a pause has fluctuated a fair bit over the past 6 months, and now stands are roughly even odds. The AI-generated summary: "In summary, while there has been some progress in negotiations between Israel and Hamas mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, significant obstacles remain due to the uncompromising demands put forth by both sides. Powerful actors both internally and externally continue attempts to broker a temporary ceasefire, but the goals of the parties involved appear incompatible at present. The situation remains volatile with high uncertainty regarding whether even a temporary halt in violence lasting 30 days might occur before 1 December 2024."

Second, the Saudis are pushing for a less ambitious deal with the US so that they do not have to compromise completely regarding Israel. 

"The Saudis are pushing for a more modest plan B, which excludes the Israelis. Under that option, the US and Saudi Arabia would sign agreements on a bilateral defence pact, US help in the building of a Saudi civil nuclear energy industry, and high-level sharing in the field of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.

An offer would be made to Israel of normalisation of diplomatic relations with Riyadh in return for Israeli acceptance of the two-state solution to the 76-year Israeli-Arab conflict. But under Riyadh’s plan B proposal, completion of the US-Saudi deals would not be made dependent on agreement from the Netanyahu government."

The US seems to have agreed to this (not entirely confident if the sequence of events is right, but the way the deal has been framed in reporting since indicates that is the case).

From WSJ: "But the success of the diplomatic effort hinges on Israel’s commitment to a separate Palestinian state, and more immediately an end to the war in Gaza, an unlikely proposition amid months of fruitless cease-fire talks and an Israeli weekend raid to retrieve hostages from the heart of the territory."

Anecdotally, I have heard from the DC think tank sphere that the Saudis are pushing for the deal to close before the election.

TL;DR: Based on how the US-Saudi negotiations are going, normalisation may be offered but not likely to be actioned within the next months.

Sources: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/may/01/saudi-us-biden-deal-israel

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-saudi-arabia-nearing-agreement-security-pact-sources-say-2024-05-02/

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New Prediction

CSIS's Significant Cyber Incident Tracker lists five cyberattacks involving Iran:

1. March 2024: Iranian hackers compromised an IT network connected to an Israeli nuclear facility. Hackers leaked sensitive facility documents but did not compromise its operational technology network.

2. February 2024: Russian hackers launched an espionage campaign against the embassies of Georgia, Poland, Ukraine, and Iran beginning in 2023. Hackers exploited a bug in a webmail server to inject malware into servers at the embassies and collect information on European and Iranian political and military activities.

3. February 2024: U.S. officials hacked an Iranian military spy ship that was sharing intelligence with Houthi rebels who have been firing on ships in the Red Sea. According to U.S. officials, the attack was part of the Biden administration’s response to an Iranian drone stroke that killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan.

4. December 2023: Israeli-linked hackers disrupted approximately 70% of gas stations in Iran. Hackers claimed the attack was in retaliation for aggressive actions by Iran and its proxies in the region. Pumps restored operation the next day, but payment issues continued for several days.

5. October 2023: Pro-Hamas and pro-Israeli hacktivists have launched multiple cyberattacks against Israeli government sites and Hamas web pages in the aftermath of Hamas’ attacks on Israel on October 7th. Russian and Iranian hacktivists also targeted Israeli government sites, and Indian hacktivists have attacked Hamas websites in support of Israel.

Only one qualifies under this question.

In 2023, there were 8 incidents of attacks by Iran-backed hackers, but none listed as targeting Iran.

Going back further, there was a major attack in 2022 on an Iranian steel company that led to halting of production. The then Defence Minister Benny Gantz said:

"These new proxies are ‘terrorists with keyboards,’ yet they are just like any other terrorist. We know who they are, we target them and those who direct them. They are in our sights as we speak — and not just in cyberspace...Not a single attack on Israel’s citizens will be met with silence. The responsibility for such attacks lies with the countries and terror groups that fund and guide them. There is a variety of possible responses to cyberattacks — in and outside of the cyber domain.”

And of course, as many have mentioned already, the most famous attack on critical infrastructure in Iran was the Stuxnet virus.

All in all, surprisingly few significant attacks (or at least publicly acknowledged ones).

Starting with low probability based on this.

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New Prediction
TrishBytes
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Jun 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2024
95% (0%)
No
Jun 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

Maintaining a low likelihood of direct confrontation, noting the following development: UNSC resolution demanding Houthis halt attacks on ships.

"The U.N. Security Council on Thursday approved a resolution demanding Yemen’s Houthi rebels halt all attacks on ships and urged that the disruption to maritime security in a critical Middle East waterway be urgently addressed.

The resolution made no mention that the Iran-backed rebels claim they are staging the attacks because of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza."

https://apnews.com/article/un-resolution-yemen-houthi-attacks-red-sea-b1311059a554fddd450b5293c28e65a5

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Why might you be wrong?

The region is hardly stable, and it's hard to predict what could trigger an attack. Iran just issued a "warning" to Israel:

"Iran has warned Israel against “full-scale military aggression” in Lebanon and said it would lead to an “obliterating war”, the Islamic republic’s United Nations mission said."

https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-threaten-obliterating-war-israel-attack-lebanon/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/29/iran-warns-israel-of-obliterating-war-if-it-attacks-lebanon

“All options, [including] the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table,” the mission wrote in a post on X late on Friday, referring to Iran-aligned armed groups across the region.

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New Prediction

Moderating over time.

On June 13, Brad Smith appeared before the House Committee on Homeland Security. From an article from NYT:

"Republican lawmakers questioned a senior Microsoft executive on Thursday about the company’s presence in China, about a year after Chinese hackers used the tech giant’s systems to launch a devastating hack of federal government networks.

Several members of the House Committee on Homeland Security asked Brad Smith, Microsoft’s president, in an hourslong hearing how a critical contractor for the U.S. government like Microsoft could maintain a commercial business in China, which Mr. Smith said accounted for about 1.4 or 1.5 percent of the company’s sales.

“Is it really worth it?” asked Representative Carlos Gimenez, a Republican from Florida.

Mr. Smith argued that Microsoft’s business in China served American interests by protecting the trade secrets of Microsoft’s American customers operating there and learning from what’s going on in the rest of the world."

The questioning did not seem to place a lot of pressure regarding Microsoft's AI Lab in China, so lowering slightly. No punitive measures appear to be around the corner, however Microsoft may voluntarily hedge and move some aspects of their AI operations out of China, as indicated by earlier reporting stating they have asked their China-based employees to relocate to other offices.

NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/13/technology/microsoft-hearing-security.html

Hearing Transcript: https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-house-of-homeland-security-hearing-on-assessing-microsofts-cybersecurity-shortfalls/

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New Prediction
TrishBytes
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
2023 Q2
0% (0%)
2023 Q3
0% (0%)
2023 Q4
0% (0%)
2024 Q1
0% (0%)
2024 Q2

Confirming previous forecast, with one day remaining. There have been no major dips in demand signals or supply shocks that could affect the 2024 Q2 report.

Confident that North America's share will continue to hold strong this year.

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New Prediction

No update on travel advisory levels from the Five Eyes. The travel advisory search did throw up this interesting piece of news:

"People should avoid unnecessary travel to China after Beijing issued 22 guidelines allowing its courts to try in absentia and sentence to death “Taiwan independence separatists,” the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday as it raised its travel alert for China, including Hong Kong and Macau, to “orange.”"

+

"Liang [Wen-chieh, spokesperson for Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council], making the announcement at a regular news conference in Taipei, said those guidelines represented a serious threat to the safety of Taiwanese visiting China, in addition to other measures China has been taking to strengthen its national security laws."

Sources:

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-tells-its-citizens-avoid-unnecessary-travel-china-2024-06-27/

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New Prediction

Thanks to @harjanim for this link: https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/let-s-stop-pretending-open-ran-is-in-good-health

It was particularly useful in outlining that open RAN compliance hasn't had much benefit for third companies (i.e. companies outside of the two major 5G vendors minus Chinese vendors).

Also: 

"The names Altiostar, Mavenir and Parallel Wireless – all of which began as software companies headquartered in the US – were synonymous with open RAN several years ago. Altiostar was subsequently acquired by the Symphony unit of Japan's Rakuten and rebranded SymRAN. While its business model now undergoes radical change, it powers no one significant besides the greenfield networks of Rakuten Mobile and Germany's 1&1. Within Dish Network, the other notable greenfield player, its role seems to be as understudy to Mavenir.


Parallel Wireless, meanwhile, cut hundreds of jobs in 2022. When Vodafone executives discuss it now, they use the language and tone of someone talking about an ill or deceased relative. "Emotionally, it is sad, and yes, it is true," said Santiago Tenorio, Vodafone's head of network strategy, on the subject of smaller vendors in late 2023. "We were working together with them and particularly the name that no one mentions now is Parallel Wireless. They were very prominent at the beginning and now they are not a reference anymore.""

Also noting the general poor state of the RAN market, as flagged by multiple forecasters via the Dell'Oro Group report which notes that the global RAN is now projected to decline 5 to 8 percent in 2024.

Even the less dire predictions don't see much growth in the short term.

"CSPs that have been clamoring for open RAN remain committed to the technology, but there is increasing acceptance that open RAN is not ready to be commercially deployed at scale (especially not in areas of the macro layer that are heavily trafficked) as a viable alternative to traditional, purpose-built RAN — and may not be viewed as ready at least through 2024. As such, open RAN will continue to have a limited impact on the RAN market in 2024." (Link).

Paired with my earlier comments on lack of market signal for Huawei to work on open RAN compliance, I'm holding steady on a forecast leaning on "no".

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New Badge
TrishBytes
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Lowering as successive ceasefire deals fizzle out. 

Earlier this month, Blinken was in the Middle East and presented a proposed agreement for a six week pause, which has ended up failing: "While US officials have insisted that Israel authored the proposal, various Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have pledged to continue fighting until Hamas is eliminated, and have refused to publicly endorse it fully."

Additionally, very confusing language from Netanyahu:

"In an interview broadcast late Sunday on Israeli Channel 14, a conservative, pro-Netanyahu station, the Israeli leader said he was “prepared to make a partial deal — this is no secret — that will return to us some of the people,” referring to the roughly 120 hostages still held in the Gaza Strip. “But we are committed to continuing the war after a pause, in order to complete the goal of eliminating Hamas. I’m not willing to give up on that.”


https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-news-06-24-2024-f5de2ed8288ac3cdb02c4e9e2fbaeda1

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/23/netanyahu-says-war-will-continue-even-if-deal-agreed-with-hamas

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New Prediction

"Australia has raised concerns about China's large-scale military drills as Beijing exercised a show of force around Taiwan. The military drills around Taiwan followed an incident where a Chinese jet fighter forced an Australian navy helicopter to take evasive action after launching flares in front of it earlier this month."

The drills are reportedly in response to the results of Taiwan's *democratic* elections. Showy but probably harmless?

That said, Australia still has no travel advisory for Taiwan, current as of May 29.

https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/asia/taiwan

Monitoring Five Eyes, the only relevant advisory is from the US, which has posted a global caution: "Due to the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations, or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests, the Department of State advises U.S. citizens overseas to exercise increased caution."

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/worldwide-caution.html

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DKC
made a comment:

@TrishBytes Thanks for the updated info from Five Eyes... and the fabulous  pic😍

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