INFER Public

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2023 08:04AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	54%	-14%	+2%
No	60%	46%	+14%	-2%

Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2023 07:10AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%

Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2023 11:41AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	6%	-4%	-5%

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 02, 2023 12:26PM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	4%	-4%	+0%

Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Mar 31, 2024 04:00PM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 02, 2023 12:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	3%	-1%	+0%

Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 02, 2023 12:47PM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 02, 2023 12:54PM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	44%	-24%	-4%

Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2023 06:26AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	76%	+24%	+7%
No	0%	24%	-24%	-7%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2023 06:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 18, 2023 to Mar 18, 2024	Oct 18, 2023	0%	+0%	+0%

What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2023 07:00AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 7%	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%	35%	47%	-12%	-2%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%	65%	44%	+21%	+2%
More than or equal to 22%	0%	4%	-4%	+0%

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