TrishBytes

Temporarily raising to 100% because there may be a song that satisfies the criteria of this question. Sending to the team to see if it qualifies.

An AI-generated "artist" is credited on this song:

Welcome to MY World by aespa (feat. naevis)

https://open.spotify.com/track/3q5qpprtugUIEPExuI7tRD?si=19c11a746b514352

https://www.nme.com/news/music/aespa-naevis-ai-debut-artist-vr-concert-kwangya-sxsw-3387209

The pretty universal conclusion now is that Ukraine's summer counteroffensive -- while it has had a few symbolic victories -- has not moved the needle much in the last few months, likely because Russia's defenses are deeply entrenched.

But, Ukrainian forces did manage to break through Russian defensive lines around Robotyne, and..."If Ukraine can sever this main supply route then Russia will find it all but impossible to maintain its huge garrison in Crimea which it annexed in 2014." 

A core obstacle right now is that Ukrainian forces are running out of ammunition, and NATO defense suppliers just cannot produce enough to meet the immediate demand. The ability to supply equipment is a persistent challenge as well, with analysts stating that NATO just doesn't have the volume of equipment needed to meet its pledges to Ukraine.

I found @404_NOT_FOUND's analysis here quite compelling as well. https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/99391

We're now just a few months away from the end of the forecast period.

Sources:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66796358

https://www.ft.com/content/e83bd6fe-43b8-4adf-9bea-07609bc223d0

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/politics/ukraine-critical-ammo-shortage-us-nato-grapple/index.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-14/eu-us-nato-don-t-have-enough-weapons-for-ukraine-to-fight-russia#xj4y7vzkg

Judging by a number of factors, an invasion/blockade/attack within the next six months seems very unlikely. All signs point toward a mix of push and pull measures seeking to influence rather than all-out aggression.

1) Trade and financial indicators

- Energy imports: China's crude imports increased by 22.7% (volume) YoY in August. There are no indications of stockpiling however, with reports suggesting refineries are ramping up production, for both domestic consumption as well as for energy exports.

- Forex reserves: China's (official) forex reserves have been rising steadily since a precipitous dip in September 2022, when the value of the Yuan hit a two-year low. I don't see any unusual fluctuations in gold holdings in their reported figures.

2) Security

The PLA has continued to fly jets around Taiwan, most recently in response to US-Canada FONOPs in the Taiwan Strait. This kind of tit-for-tat activity has been going on for several months now. I doubt they will seek to escalate, given indications that US-China talks may be building toward a leader-level summit.

3) Miscellaneous instruments targeting Taiwan

-  From AP: "China unveiled a plan for an “integrated development demonstration zone” in its southeastern Fujian province, the closest to self-governed, democratic Taiwan...As part of the plan, Beijing is encouraging Taiwanese companies to list on Chinese stock exchanges and is promising better conditions for Taiwanese investors and a more “relaxed” environment for travel, according to a statement Tuesday by the Communist Party’s Central Committee and the State Council, China’s Cabinet."

This policy seems to have the Taiwanese presidential election next year in mind, likely seeking to influence sentiment toward China.

Repeating from last forecast window. Will update while tracking the factors mentioned.

Predicting conflicts is not easy. Thinking back on our forecast before the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year, our forecasts started quite low predicated on the expectation of rationality from Putin, and only grew certain with the actual buildup of troops at the border.

This article by The Economist was quite illuminating: "Could economic indicators give an early warning of a war over Taiwan?" (linked below). Based on the close relationship between the CCP and the private sector, it posits that the following imports will spike if China is preparing for war (although not necessarily as the aggressor):

1. Rationing the use of fossil fuels, sharp increase in energy imports

The piece cites how China's gas imports/term deals increased rapidly in the months leading up to Putin's invasion, even with higher prices.

2. Food imports/stockpiling of staples like wheat, soybeans, baby food and other grains and reduction in export/re-export of food items.

3. Imports of critical minerals for munitions (beryllium, tantalum)

4. Financial indicators -- eg. capital flight, conversion of forex reserves from USD to gold.

The piece concludes that an invasion of Taiwan is unlikely based on the current state of these indicators.

Also noting the recent American USD 1 billion weapons aid package to Taiwan:

"The Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) has been used on an emergency basis to expedite security assistance to Ukraine by allowing the president to transfer articles and services from U.S. stockpiles. The Taiwan PDA, however, is a non-emergency authority approved by Congress last year."

Agreeing with the crowd on this one, though will certainly keep an eye on all the indicators mentioned here.

https://www.economist.com/china/2023/07/27/could-economic-indicators-signal-chinas-intent-to-go-to-war

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-announces-taiwan-weapons-package-worth-up-345-million-2023-07-28/#

11 publications on the Google pubs page now, which would make the timeline for updates (10-11 week delay) fairly consistent with what was mentioned here: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/86592.

With the passage of time, revising down to 20%.

Lowering further with time.

No new relevant information since previous forecast. 

While there have been some OTT comments from Xi, that kind of aggressive rhetoric is likely for a domestic audience.

Interesting tidbit from @FeelWuu about OpenAI filing a trademark for GPT-5 with the US Patent and Trademark Office. Confirmed on the USPTO trademark search system: https://tmsearch.uspto.gov/bin/showfield?f=doc&state=4808:g270oy.3.1

The filing date is July 18, 2023.

That said, there isn't really a pattern in OpenAI's filings so this can just be a preemptive filing, rather than an indication of an imminent launch.

Going through TESS, the trademark application for GPT-4 was filed on March 13, 2023. The initial release date was March 14, 2023. And the trademark application for GPT-3 was filed three weeks after its launch. I can't seem to find a trademark application for GPT-2 at all.

With three months left, and Altman himself stating that OpenAI is not working on GPT-5 (note that this article is dated at about 12 days before the trademark filing date), keeping my forecast at zero.