The regime does not allow this to happen, so it won't happen.
0.302
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 27, 2022 02:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(+0%)
Yes
May 27, 2022 to Jun 27, 2022
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
I don't see a path to this under the Russian regime.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 27, 2022 02:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
(+30%)
Yes
May 27, 2022 to Nov 27, 2022
I think China will use the West's exhaustion with the Russian war against Ukraine as an opportunity. And, it will call in favors from Russia for supporting it during the current war.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
Less than 200
3%
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
0%
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
0%
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0%
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0%
More than or equal to 1000
Putin's approval rating is going up, and Russian citizens are being encouraged to turn their neighbors and family and friends in for contravening state propaganda.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 11, 2022 07:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-12%)
Yes
Apr 11, 2022 to May 11, 2022
His approval ratings are going UP. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putins-approval-rating-soars-since-he-sent-troops-into-ukraine-state-pollster-2022-04-08/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
How would he be unseated? I see no path to that outcome. An election? No. A military coup? No. A political coup? No. A revolution? No. My current prediction is that he will be president until he dies and the next president will be of his choosing.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 11, 2022 07:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
(+10%)
Yes
Apr 11, 2022 to Oct 11, 2022
China's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and propaganda portraying Russia as a victim of Western aggression, along with recent military maneuvers, seem to set the stage for a similar strategy in the South China Sea. China might be betting that the Western world can't handle double-edged sanctions on both Russia and China at the same time.
Files
The window for protests has come and gone.
It appears April hit 200:
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/40039