ben

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-0.329

Relative Brier Score

66

Forecasts

15

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 9 59 66 80
Comments 0 1 7 3 8
Questions Forecasted 1 8 14 16 21
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 5 14 15 19
 Definitions
New Prediction

Looking at the ACLED data, there have been 718 fatalities since the start of 2019 (so, ~2 1/2 years). If you go back to start of 2018, then you get to 1,068 total over the ~3 1/2 years.

So to get over 1000 in a 1 year period, we'd to see a large/sustained conflict break out well in excess of recent history.

New Prediction

Increasing due to the aggressive military response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

New Prediction

Passage of time

New Badge
ben
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Passage of time

New Prediction
ben
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-2%)
Yes, and it will pass
0% (-1%)
Yes, and it will not pass
100% (+3%)
No
New Prediction
ben
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
14% (-9%)
Less than 5%
54% (+4%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 10%
29% (+5%)
Between 10% and 15%, inclusive
3% (+0%)
More than 15%
New Prediction
ben
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 200
90%
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
7%
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
3%
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0%
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0%
More than or equal to 1000
Why do you think you're right?

Leaning heavily into the 200-400 bucket:

- The 200 threshold is already surpassed, so that's a 0%

- The initial phase of the war was probably the highest risk of mass protests, and that has passed. If the initial part of the war didn't pass the 400 threshold, it seems unlikely that we're going over that unless there is some other triggering event

- Once we get into the cold winter months, that should put downward pressure on the number

- Government crackdown on protests also puts downward pressure

Why might you be wrong?

There could be some other triggering event, such as:

- tide of the war turns

- sanctions bite in a much more serious way

- Putin dies or some other sort of regime change
New Prediction

Bumping a bit based on the articles shared by @DKC where Dodik's rhetoric again seems secessionist.

I admit to finding the whole thing confusing. Dodik had seemed to soften his talking points about this, but is now back to being more aggressive.

New Prediction
ben
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (-6%)
Yes, and it will pass
1% (-1%)
Yes, and it will not pass
97% (+7%)
No

Running out of time

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