It is unclear to me why there is a distinction made between forecasts and comments in the numbers when a comment is required with every forecast? I would like to see how many of those comments were unique or insightful, versus how many are some variations of "calibrating for time".
0.914
Relative Brier Score
22
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 84 | 22 | 272 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 47 | 18 | 73 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Comment
How our 2023 Pro Forecasters earned their spot and welcoming the new Pro All Stars
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Earthquake
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
Would be big win for Bibi
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Very unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
Very unlikely
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 11, 2023 01:25AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
May 11, 2023 to Nov 11, 2023
Not this year
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-30%)
Intel
Very low
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
The current coalition is stronger than appears
Files