so prigozhin is gone, but the US tests putin's honor in armenia, and ukraine appears deadlocked, so without an assassination or ailment of old age, i think he's fine where he is... so upping for the latter.
4.195
Relative Brier Score
506
Forecasts
69
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 33 | 759 | 506 | 1597 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 67 | 49 | 317 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 29 | 140 | 102 | 232 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 8 | 91 | 69 | 208 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(+2%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
(-22%)
Less than or equal to 49
51%
(+14%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
8%
(+8%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 200
realistically, 48-60 is right about on the border, so i have to adjust upward
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
(+38%)
Less than or equal to 49
37%
(-13%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(-20%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(-5%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 200
may 5
jun 4
jul 5
so far 28 still... i guess some apr got moved to may?
starting to call it but paying attn because at an avg of 4/mo -> 48, and while it was 3/mo before jun (i.e. increasing), then total 60 is terribly closeby
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes
despite @cmeinel's excellent point, i think i'll stick very unreasonably with 0!
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
51%
(+31%)
Less than or equal to 499
49%
(-1%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(-20%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(-8%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 2000
jun 22+12
jul 30+14
aug 1+1
so still on track for ~480 so far...
+ stability in the activity tab recently, so increasing on the lower end
...really still waiting on updated data...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(-8%)
Yes
Sep 15, 2023 to Mar 15, 2024
no news but for a sabotage attempt... which i guess doesn't count...
Files
i forgot the resolution on the last one of these but it was around the same numbers, which apparently have been increasing but for the covid blip, so i'm aiming just a bit higher than the mid-range