Straight-forward, very low prob at this time of something going down.
0.676
Relative Brier Score
191
Forecasts
39
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 6 | 326 | 191 | 1083 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 | 126 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 6 | 81 | 51 | 149 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 51 | 39 | 318 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
Yes
89%
No
So it's down to the probability that they make it multiplied by the probability that it's discovered. The first seems quite high to me, esp. given the detection of 83.7% particles. The second...well, they already screwed up once. I think many of the commenters below overestimate Iranian competence.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
Yes
18%
No
Lots of independent attempts, combined with recent success suggesting it's quite doable (and at a relatively low cost!).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(+0%)
Yes
Sep 21, 2023 to Mar 21, 2024
No change.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-7%)
Yes
Passage of time and lack of solid news.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-43%)
Yes
Problems with mission
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 18, 2023 07:56AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
Yes
Aug 18, 2023 to Feb 18, 2024
Pretty much just going with the base rate at this point.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(+32%)
Yes
Mission proceeding...
Files
AI detection is so extraordinarily bad that I can't see this happening. False positives would just be too high.