Confirmed previous forecast
-0.851339
Relative Brier Score
560
Forecasts
167
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 188 | 1 | 1176 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 127 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 158 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 330 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
Monthly Power Forecaster - Nov 2023
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
44%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
53%
(0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
2%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-1%)
Yes
95%
(+1%)
No
Upping the no for passage of time. To reiterate my previous point, there's just no reliable way to detect Ai writing. There won't be one by June (in fact the more progress we see in LLMs the less likely such a technology seems). It would be a disaster to release a system with a super high false positive rate, and that's the only kind of system that can exist.
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast expired on Mar 30, 2024 02:28PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024
97%
(0%)
No
Dec 30, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 30, 2024 02:28PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-2%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024
98%
(+2%)
No
Dec 30, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024
As long as the conflict continues I don't see it happening.
Files
Time.