States take a long time to pass legislation. There will eventually be many more than 5
-0.0
Relative Brier Score
22
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 21 | 22 | 222 | 22 | 293 |
| Comments | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 21 | 22 | 62 | 26 | 84 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(+10%)
Less than 5
50%
(+0%)
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
10%
(-10%)
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 18
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
There’s no way, not while they’re still supplying Ukraine with weapons
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Japan
100%
The Netherlands
25%
South Korea
0%
Any other country not listed
US pressure
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-5%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Putin holds all the levers to power still even with shifting power underneath him with Prigozhin and others.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Putin loses Crimea in Feb, there’s a chance of change, but not by march
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-60%)
Yes
I couldn’t keep holding out. As much as I believe the energy revolution is here to stay, I can’t say I’m as optimistic about plastics
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-13%)
Yes
The government is cracking down on gang activity
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
They’ve been having record profits. There’s no need to mention algae soon