Confirmed previous forecast
-0.042
Relative Brier Score
40
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 19 | 243 | 40 | 571 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 27 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 19 | 74 | 22 | 139 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
100%
(0%)
No
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-2%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
100%
(+2%)
No
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
If it happens it will be through proxies, Iran itself won’t launch such an attack
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
98%
(+3%)
No
Written posts are still very unlikely for now. Images and videos are the focus first.
Files
Did you possibly post this here accidentally instead of in https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1278-before-1-june-2024-will-facebook-whatsapp-messenger-or-twitter-announce-that-they-are-labeling-posts-as-potentially-written-by-ai/comments
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Feb 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
Cyber warfare is on the table for US retaliation against Iranian targets. It is simply another tool in the toolbox that will be used.
Files