Confirmed previous forecast
3.624944
Relative Brier Score
590
Forecasts
22
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 19 | 245 | 59 | 590 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 18 | 71 | 26 | 143 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Microelectronics,
Iran-VNSAs,
Decoding Disinformation,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
3%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
97%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+5%)
Less than $90
0%
(-5%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
With time running out before close, this price is almost locked in
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
The protests over Magda Amini went nowhere in terms of changing anything. Protests are more unlikely since people saw how little change happened along with increased executions
Files
Why might you be wrong?
With reform party feeling more and more sidelined, perhaps this could lead to political protests
Files
After the strike on Damascus this is certain