Updating based on latest price
0.047243
Relative Brier Score
25
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 3 | 11 | 140 | 25 | 376 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 93 |
Questions Forecasted | 1 | 6 | 26 | 10 | 57 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 4 | 55 | 14 | 100 |
Definitions |
Upvotes Received
Model-based update in light of new data.
IMO the crowd is too low.
- Base rate of death within the next year for an 85 year old man (in the UK) is 10%.
- There have been rumours about his health before (but he is almost 85...) so I wouldn't update too much based on that.
- He surely has better healthcare than the average UK 85 year old, but I'd think even the best healthcare wouldn't more than half the probability. He probably also has slightly less chance of dying each year for genetic reasons.
- There's a small chance (maybe 2%?) that he does not die but becomes incapacitated enough to force resignation.
- I think risk of exile or other ousting is around the 1-2% mark, so in total I'd go for 10%.
Checking crowd activity after writing the above rationale, seems like @404_NOT_FOUND has come to a pretty similar conclusion with similar estimates for similar possibilities, but with a more detailed rationale which I broadly agree with. You might want to read that rationale for more.
Recent large movements in the market. Somewhat unexpected, but it can happen. Sticking with my model, and mostly ignoring the intraday clarification (side forecast: 100% chance I will be mildly annoyed if intraday causes the question to resolve differently to closing price). Small adjustment for 'momentum' (though I think the random walk prior is a good starting point).
Coming back towards crowd given time remaining. We've seen slightly-relevant news (YouTube requiring AI disclosure) but it's not really the same as C2PA. The BBC Verify stuff from earlier this month is relevant, but the "only" in the question remains a very high bar.
Based on my base rate model with updated inputs.
I should've updated this one more frequently!
Model update. With the time remaining, exceeding $90 tomorrow is very unlikely.