efosong

We're at 2 members now. Unlikely that any VC partners leave in the next 5 months, but somewhat likely another partner joins.

Shifting towards confident 'no'. Even if Ultima's offering hits the market before September (and the target seems to be 'mid-2023'), I find it very unlikely that this will impact costs at NHGRI centres by Sep, and that the total costs when including indirect costs will be less than $100.

Time

Moving down a couple of %-points for 2 reasons:

1. no real indication of much violence so far
2. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicting Obi won't win election. My initial forecast assigned weight to violence reacting to a Obi (Christian) presidency. Unsure of their probabilities on this (don't have a subscription) but looking at the Metaculus question puts an Obi win at 22% (though not many forecasts). But based on my initial reasoning this should bring my forecast down to 8%
   

Remember we're starting from base rates of about 14%, though trends lower recently, and not much activity so far this year. On the other hand recent-ish warnings from foreign offices, and the 'long tailed' nature of terrorist attacks meaning one or two incidents could add up to over 200 fatalities. So I'm going with 8% for now

Time & crowd

Passage of time. Looking likely we’ve seen the peak, but leaving a flat tail for outlier events 

Slightly increasing confidence. Based on no signs of trend change.