efosong

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Relative Brier Score

12

Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 6 12 214 12 214
Comments 1 1 68 0 68
Questions Forecasted 6 12 39 12 39
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 37 0 37
 Definitions
New Prediction
efosong
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (-4%)
0
4% (-41%)
1
60% (+23%)
2
34% (+22%)
More than or equal to 3

We're at 2 members now. Unlikely that any VC partners leave in the next 5 months, but somewhat likely another partner joins.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Shifting towards confident 'no'. Even if Ultima's offering hits the market before September (and the target seems to be 'mid-2023'), I find it very unlikely that this will impact costs at NHGRI centres by Sep, and that the total costs when including indirect costs will be less than $100.

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Why might you be wrong?

I'm conflicted as to whether I'm still underconfident here. Perhaps 2% is appropriate to account for 'surprises' here: I don't think I know enough about the area or the processes behind computing the costs to confidently drop below 2%. But my gut feeling suggests going more confident (1%).

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New Prediction

Time

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New Prediction

Moving down a couple of %-points for 2 reasons:

  1. no real indication of much violence so far
  2. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicting Obi won't win election. My initial forecast assigned weight to violence reacting to a Obi (Christian) presidency. Unsure of their probabilities on this (don't have a subscription) but looking at the Metaculus question puts an Obi win at 22% (though not many forecasts). But based on my initial reasoning this should bring my forecast down to 8%

Remember we're starting from base rates of about 14%, though trends lower recently, and not much activity so far this year. On the other hand recent-ish warnings from foreign offices, and the 'long tailed' nature of terrorist attacks meaning one or two incidents could add up to over 200 fatalities. So I'm going with 8% for now

Files
New Prediction
efosong
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
9% (+0%)
Less than or equal to 5
88% (+0%)
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
3% (+0%)
More than or equal to 8
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
efosong
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (+0%)
Less than 200
89% (+6%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
5% (-3%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
2% (-2%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
2% (-1%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
2% (+0%)
More than or equal to 1000

Passage of time. Looking likely we’ve seen the peak, but leaving a flat tail for outlier events 

Files
New Prediction
efosong
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
12% (+0%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
23% (+0%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
24% (+0%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
41% (+0%)
Not before 1Q 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
efosong
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
87% (+2%)
Less than 20%
12% (-2%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
1% (+0%)
More than or equal to 24%

Slightly increasing confidence. Based on no signs of trend change.

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Files
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