forec4st

About:
Show more

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 2 0 8
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 0 0 2 0 7
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 0 1
 Definitions
New Badge
forec4st
earned a new badge:

Upvotes Received

New Prediction

Considering the renewed focus in Europe on managing interdependence and ensuring the resilience of critical supply chains, the desire in the EU is definitely there. (See https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3166311/eu-rolls-out-red-carpet-tsmc-and-other-semiconductor-giants). Europe's recently announced CHIPS Act will also include funds to incentivize firms such as TSMC to build fabs in Europe.

TSMC's policy, in the past, has been to avoid building fabs outside of Taiwan. But that seems to be changing, since it has held talks with the EU last year (see source above). TSMC is also apparently taking into account the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to hedge its bets and build fabs abroad (https://www.asiafinancial.com/china-risk-sees-taiwans-tsmc-moving-chip-fabs-overseas).

Files
New Badge
forec4st
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Of course, considering the current tensions and the impact of the invasion of Ukraine, the chance of institutionalization of a bilateral dialogue remains relatively low.

However, it will be hard for a bilateral economic dialogue between China and the US to avoid discussion of emerging technologies, since they are central to both countries' economy.

(The digital/tech economy, although this includes technologies not considered as 'emerging', represents 9.6% of US GDP in 2019 (https://www.bea.gov/data/special-topics/digital-economy) and apparently around 30% of China's GDP (https://institute.global/policy/chinas-tech-landscape-primer))

Thus, the question is whether an economy-related dialogue will be put into place.

Considering:
- the existence of previous strategic dialogues (see above, 'background information' of this question)
- the fact that China and the US held talks at least once last year (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/economy-on-agenda-as-china-us-continue-high-level-exchanges/2261259)
- that some policy analysts consider that previous dialogues were beneficial ("the US gained significant benefits from official dialogue mechanisms with China" https://www.ncafp.org/new-report-us-china-strategic-economic-dialogues/) and thus advocate for such a dialogue to be put in place:

The chances of a bilateral dialogue happening are, compared with other forecasts, relatively high.

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username