Passage of time and few signs of real progress.
0.13
Relative Brier Score
146
Forecasts
13
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 261 | 146 | 689 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 69 | 43 | 110 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | 21 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
30%
(-15%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
0%
(-100%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
(+0%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
0%
(+0%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
100%
(+100%)
Not before 1Q 2024
I reversed the percentage in my last update…
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
100%
(+100%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
(-1%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
0%
(-1%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
0%
(-98%)
Not before 1Q 2024
Passage of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
Updating.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-2%)
Yes
Moderating to the team.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Intel
No sign of this.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
Stability persists.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Less than 5%
5%
(-4%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
95%
(+5%)
More than or equal to 6%
Updating for data to date.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(-15%)
Yes
Continuing to come down on this from my overzealous starting forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-90%)
Yes
Luna failure.
Files