215th
Accuracy Rank

lan

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3.142

Relative Brier Score

141

Forecasts

39

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 2 151 141 1021
Comments 0 0 10 10 13
Questions Forecasted 0 2 99 97 225
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 3 43 39 50
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New Prediction
lan
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
40%
Less than or equal to 49
45%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
10%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
5%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 200

I think the number of fatalities in Al Salvador will be much lower in 2023 than previous years.   “In January, the government said El Salvador’s homicide rate had decreased by nearly 57 percent in 2022, and critics acknowledge that gangs that once brought violence and extortion to entire neighbourhoods have been dealt a significant blow,” reported by Aljazeera. According to ACLED, gang attacks against civilians continues to decreased, while clashes between gangs and state forces remained high. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america#:~:text=In%20January%2C%20the%20government%20said,been%20dealt%20a%20significant%20blow. 


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New Prediction
lan
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Nov 3, 2023 to Dec 3, 2023

At present time a cease fire agreement is not very likely.

"We're at the height of the battle. We've had impressive successes and have passed the outskirts of Gaza City. We are advancing," Netanyahu said in a statement after the military said it had encircled the seaside enclave's main city1.

The White House, meanwhile, rejected calls for a cease fire, said any pauses in fighting should be temporary and localised, and insisted they would not stop Israel defending itself1.

1. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-call-israel-implement-humanitarian-pauses-gaza-2023-11-03/


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New Prediction
lan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-35%)
Yes

According to a recent article by CSIS, Myanmar’s military regime is currently in a stalemate and internal strife, which might be the catalyst pushing them towards an election 1. However, the junta has promised a general election after a census is completed next October 2. The exact date of the election has not been announced yet.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/myanmars-precipice-stalemate-and-internal-strife-compelling-military-toward-election 


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New Prediction

United Airlines has not officially made any announcement regarding Cemvita. However, On September 13, 2023, Cemvita Corporation announced an offtake arrangement with United Airlines for up to 1 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from Cemvita’s first full-scale SAF plant. Under the agreement, signed by Cemvita and United Airlines, Cemvita will supply United Airlines up to 50 million gallons annually for 20 years of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) made from CO2.

https://www.cemvita.com/news/united-signs-agreement-to-buy-up-to-one-billion-gallons-of-sustainable-aviation-fuel-from-cemvita 


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New Prediction

Although several European countries and Canada are currently conducting investigations into ChatGPT, I don’t think another country will ban OpenAI before October 2023 for the following reason:

1. AI is where the future is heading. It is probably impossible to stop the invasion of AI into our world. There are many other groups that are developing AI applications. So banning OpenAI doesn’t stop this movement.

2. World leaders are nervously apaying attention to the release of OpenAI. They are more concerned with legal aspects as AI becomes widely popular. iA spokesperson for the German Ministry of the Interior told German news outlet Handelsblatt recently, “We do not need a ban on AI applications, but rather ways to ensure values such as democracy and transparency.”

3. While some sound the alarm on ChatGPT, others say the chatbot isn’t the problem, rather a broader issue of society’s intended use of it.

https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/5/23709833/openai-chatgpt-gdpr-ai-regulation-europe-eu-italy

https://decrypt.co/125540/ai-artificial-intelligence-national-bans-laws


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New Prediction

A small political protest in Thailand was recorded in July 2023 by Global Protest Tracker. The protest was triggered by the action of Thailand’s parliament blocking Pita Limjaroenrat of Move Forward Party from standing for election for the premiership for a second time.   There hasn't been a huge protest since 2019, I think this will be the trend for a while.


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New Prediction
lan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
18% (+4%)
Less than or equal to 24
32% (+12%)
Between 25 and 34, inclusive
37% (+8%)
Between 35 and 44, inclusive
11% (-21%)
Between 45 and 54, inclusive
2% (-3%)
More than or equal to 55

I think the collisions reported for the last quarter of 2023 will be lower than the total number. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

As of Sept Dysprosium Oxide Price, USD/kg was traded at $374.66. Range: 371.88 - 377.45. According to Statista 2023 (see chart), the price of Dysprosium oxide is forecasted to stabilized rising slowly to about $410 in 2024.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/450164/global-reo-dysprosium-oxide-price-forecast/


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Why might you be wrong?

There are many unforeseen factors that will affect the price of Dysprosium Oxide such as disruptions in demand and supply, war, inflation, ect…

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fellow forecaster Ian: as stated in the resolution criteria for this question:


https://www.argusmedia.com/metals-platform/price/assessment/dysprosium-oxide-min-99-5--fob-china-prices-PA00143980000

the above link provided  is the resolution source ⬆️⬆️

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