15th
Accuracy Rank

michalbod

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-0.213

Relative Brier Score

375

Forecasts

55

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 18 54 498 375 516
Comments 0 0 5 5 6
Questions Forecasted 16 27 58 45 58
Upvotes on Comments By This User 4 9 60 55 62
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction

looks like after months long blockade Artsakh forces did not have ability to fight and had to surrender. So unless fighting will move to Armenia proper it is unlikely at this point

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New Prediction

I think I overreacted initially as conflict for now is only in Karabakh and not in Armenian main territory. Unless Azerbaijan will try to establish corridor to Nakhchivan which may prompt Iran to enter stage chances of above 5000 are small.

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New Prediction
michalbod
made their 21st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
35% (+0%)
Less than 6,000
65% (+0%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
More than or equal to 9,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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