ncm

adjustment as time passes 

adjustment as time passes 

decrease as time pass without any signal 

Iran strategically utilizes proxy forces across various regions, enabling them to supply missiles without directly engaging in a conflict with Israel. By employing these proxies, Iran maintains a level of distance, avoiding direct involvement in a war while still exerting influence through these surrogate entities. This approach allows them to pursue their interests and objectives without triggering a full-scale direct confrontation, showcasing their adept use of proxy warfare tactics. Therefore there is no need for direct engagement, taking also into account that this would be catastrophic for their engagement. 

The Houthis, potentially with support from their Iranian backers, have remarkably established a governmental infrastructure and military strength comparable to recognized states.

Despite the prolonged conflict, the recent lapse of the ceasefire indicates a recognition of a new status quo, possibly eliminating the immediate need for another ceasefire.

It's uncertain how the Israel-Hamas situation impacts the Houthi-Yemen/KSA relationship but given the Houth activation against strategic assets of the west in the Red Sea only an intensification of the situation may be caused. 

adjudgment based on crowdforecast 

A ceasefire might be attainable if the conflict expands beyond the confines of the Gaza Strip, involving states and entities that could potentially escalate the conflict into an existential catastrophe. However, reaching a ceasefire agreement between the Hamas group and the Israeli government appears unachievable at this point. Several factors contribute to this, including ongoing deadly attacks by Hamasl, the continued captivity of both domestic and foreign individuals by Hamas, and direct threats made using firearms. Neither side is willing to cease their attacks. Although their motives differ significantly due to the conflict's origins, both sides remain steadfast in defending their respective causes.

The only viable solutions currently proposed involve agreements announced by the Israeli and US governments. These include the delivery of food and medicine to the affected regions or negotiations between the involved parties to secure the release of numerous hostages held by Hamas. However, given the present circumstances, the release of these hostages seems impossible. Based on the current open-sourced sit reps a ceasefire seems unachievable for the next 3-4 months which are needed for the elimination of the terrorist threat posed by Hamas and its underground network among other strategic elements.  

decrease as time pass