Updating based on latest numbers.
June: 170
July: 193
August: 286
September: 177
October: 276
November: 94
Total: 1196
-0.128
Relative Brier Score
601
Forecasts
62
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 48 | 650 | 601 | 2274 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 29 | 26 | 92 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 47 | 111 | 88 | 192 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 2 | 67 | 62 | 167 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(+0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
21%
(-28%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
69%
(+21%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
10%
(+7%)
More than or equal to 3000
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes
Affirming.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
Time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(-7%)
Yes
Nov 24, 2023 to May 24, 2024
50%
(+7%)
No
Nov 24, 2023 to May 24, 2024
Starting out considering the contributions by @michalbod [1] and @belikewater [2].
[1] https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/108921 [2] https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/108915
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
Yes
Nov 24, 2023 to May 24, 2024
87%
No
Nov 24, 2023 to May 24, 2024
Starting out. Since 2017, there have been 4 instances with >10.000 participants with a duration over one week.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
57%
Yes
Nov 24, 2023 to May 24, 2024
43%
No
Nov 24, 2023 to May 24, 2024
Starting out considering the contributions by @michalbod [1] and @belikewater [2].
[1] https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/108921 [2] https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/108915
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
59%
Yes
Nov 24, 2023 to May 24, 2024
41%
No
Nov 24, 2023 to May 24, 2024
Starting out with the resolution criteria in mind, particularly: "Attacks that are intercepted or otherwise fail to make impact with an Israeli vessel will not count towards resolution."
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Nov 24, 2023 to May 24, 2024
100%
No
Nov 24, 2023 to May 24, 2024
Starting out late.
Files
Affirming.