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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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New Prediction
Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(+0%)
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-10%)
Less than 5%
80%
(+10%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 10%
15%
(+0%)
Between 10% and 15%, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than 15%
I'll bend to the consensus this late in the projection period.
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 29, 2023 08:07PM
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
59%
(+0%)
Less than 5
30%
(+0%)
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
10%
(+0%)
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
1%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 18
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Less than 3
12%
(+0%)
Between 3 and 5, inclusive
40%
(+0%)
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
40%
(+0%)
Between 8 and 10, inclusive
8%
(+0%)
More than 10
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
5%
(-5%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
5%
(-5%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
85%
(+15%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova
Tilting to the concensus. No indications that Georgia nor Moldova are being drawn into any of Putin's actions, yet. Too much of his time and resources are being consumed in Ukraine -- probably little interest in opening up any other fronts.
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