Confirmed previous forecast
0.282
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 391 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 68 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
15%
(+0%)
Less than 10
37%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 10 but less than 15
38%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 15 but less than 20
10%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 20
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
United States
77%
(+0%)
EU
20%
(+0%)
Japan
3%
(+0%)
Korea
0%
(+0%)
China
0%
(+0%)
None of the above
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+0%)
Intel
97%
(+0%)
Samsung
90%
(+0%)
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(+0%)
Less than 22%
40%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 22% but less than 27%
10%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 27%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
United States
10%
(+0%)
EU
90%
(+0%)
China
0%
(+0%)
United Kingdom
0%
(+0%)
None of the above
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-10%)
Yes
Revising downwards given passage of time, and Dodik's comments about delaying the plan for secession. (The Russo-Ukraine war isn't going to end anytime soon although I doubt that's the main reason that he's delaying it - not like it's super recent news that that's happened.)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Less than 200
75%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
18%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
4%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
2%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
1%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 1000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(+0%)
Less than 200
42%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
25%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
12%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
12%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
5%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 1000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files