10th
Accuracy Rank

yagudin

misha
About:
Show more

-0.696

Relative Brier Score

104

Forecasts

13

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 31 104 288
Comments 0 0 2 14 159
Questions Forecasted 0 0 9 18 56
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 2 13 42
 Definitions
New Prediction
yagudin
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
100% (+5%)
Yes

_

Files
Carranza
made a comment:

Comment deleted on Nov 14, 2022 04:16PM UTC

Files
New Prediction
yagudin
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
95% (+15%)
Yes

Files
New Prediction
yagudin
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
80% (+5%)
Yes

.

Files
New Prediction
yagudin
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
75% (+30%)
Yes

Files
New Prediction
yagudin
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
45% (+12%)
Yes

Files
New Prediction
yagudin
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
33% (-7%)
Yes

Files
New Prediction
yagudin
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
40% (-15%)
Yes

Updating on recent news

Files
New Prediction
yagudin
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
55% (+30%)
Yes
ctsats
made a comment:

This was explicitly denied by Jake Sullivan, and there was a Twitter update, too: https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1492216395483996160

Files
New Badge
yagudin
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Passage of time

Files
Files
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