How INFER works

We believe every major policy decision can be bolstered by leveraging collective foresight

INFER empowers a broad community of scientists, researchers, and analysts from inside and outside the U.S. Government to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and events for policymakers.

INFER works by operating as a continuous, 4-step life cycle between policymakers and those who are best positioned to make relevant forecasts about the future.

  1. As initial input, policymakers identify priority areas (e.g. AI policy) and strategic questions within those priority areas (e.g. “How will AI impact the military balance between the US and its competitors?”) where guidance, regulation, or clarification is needed to strengthen our competitive position or operate more effectively.

  2. We then define what aspects of the future will need to be understood to make optimal judgments on a path forward.

  3. Using those factors, we publish falsifiable forecast questions across multiple online crowdsourced forecasting platforms. These platforms have participants ranging from University graduate students to cleared intelligence analysts.

  4. Finally, INFER generates consensus, probabilistic forecasts and accompanying qualitative data to both report on the individual forecast questions, and create a rendering of which scenario is most likely to play out in response to policymaker’s strategic questions.

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