January 31, 2022 - Foretell Now Part of INFER Program Supporting U.S. Government Policymaking
My name is Adam Russell, and I’m the Chief Scientist at the University of Maryland’s Applied Research Lab for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS), a University affiliated research center funded by the U.S. Government.
I’m reaching out to announce that Foretell, Georgetown CSET’s crowdsourced forecasting program, is now part of a larger forecasting effort called INFER.
INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and events. INFER will broaden the original mission of Foretell by empowering scientists, researchers, analysts, and forecasters from inside and outside the U.S. Government to have a direct impact on policy and decision-making. The public portion of INFER (which replaced cset-foretell.com and will reside at infer-pub.com) is one of multiple forecasting sites to be operated as part of this program.
The INFER program is currently supporting U.S. Government policymakers, and will be run by ARLIS and Cultivate Labs. Funding for this program has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.
Many of you have been part of Foretell since it was founded in early 2020 by CSET. Their investment in this research effort and the dedicated contributions and participation from more than 2,000 forecasters globally have made its next chapter possible.
INFER’s forecast questions will be defined by U.S. Government policymakers, and outputs will directly support future policy guidance and resource decisions. Initially, questions will focus on critical science and technology trends such as U.S competitiveness in AI, advanced computing, biotechnology, and climate change impacts.
In addition to an expanded array of forecast topics, we’ll also be making investments in growing the Pro Forecaster Program, providing additional training opportunities for all forecasters, launching an array of enhancements to the platform, and hosting online (and hopefully in-person) events about how INFER forecasts are directly informing policy and decision-making. We encourage you to invite friends, colleagues, and anyone interested in contributing their perspective to advancing U.S science and technology policy.
New questions have already been posted on INFER, and we’re eager to see everyone’s forecasts. If you have any additional questions, you can reach the INFER team here.