Ticking down after Iranian attack + Hamas rejecting latest ceasefire offer.
0.003542
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 88 | 13 | 278 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 45 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 43 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 60 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
50%
(-10%)
Yes
50%
(+10%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 9, 2024 02:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-5%)
Yes
Mar 9, 2024 to Sep 9, 2024
90%
(+5%)
No
Mar 9, 2024 to Sep 9, 2024
Coming down a bit
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-2%)
Yes
95%
(+2%)
No
Ticking down as status quo persists
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
This feels like a tossup to me. If Israel goes into Rafah guns blazing, does that lower the probability here? Or does it increase it, since Netanyahu can declare "mission accomplished" and is then ready to talk?
The ceasefire plan being pushed forward now calls for an initial phase of 6 weeks, so if that held, this would resolve yes: https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-meet-jordans-king-who-wants-gaza-ceasefire-2024-02-12/
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
About out of time
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 9, 2024 06:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
95%
No
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
If Hezbollah wanted to get involved, I would think they would have done it at this point, so I'd guess there would need to be some other triggering event.
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Why might you be wrong?
If Israel goes into Rafah and there are large numbers of civilian casualties, then Hezbollah could retaliate and cross some of these thresholds.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
