Forecasted Questions
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Feb 27, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 49 | 70% | 77% | -7% | +19% |
Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 30% | 20% | +10% | -18% |
Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2024 11:05PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Feb 28, 2024 11:05PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 75% | 61% | +14% | -1% |
No | 25% | 39% | -14% | +1% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 18, 2024 04:37PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Mar 18, 2024 04:37PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 16% | -6% | -2% |
No | 90% | 84% | +6% | +2% |
Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(4 days from now)
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(4 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 18, 2024 04:38PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Mar 18, 2024 04:38PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 23, 2024 01:28AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Mar 23, 2024 01:28AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
No | 97% | 95% | +2% | +0% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 08:06PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Mar 25, 2024 08:06PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
2024 Q1 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
2024 Q2 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?
Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(4 days from now)
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(4 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2024 02:07AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Mar 26, 2024 02:07AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than $90 | 90% | 92% | -2% | +3% |
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100 | 10% | 8% | +2% | -3% |
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to $120 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |