Will increment bin 1 by about 1% per day from here unless the prices gets significantly closer to $90.
-0.002
Relative Brier Score
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Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
92%
(+10%)
Less than $90
8%
(-10%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
(+7%)
Less than $90
18%
(-7%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
updating on the lower price
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(-12%)
Less than $90
25%
(+12%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
reacting to recent price increases.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
updating based on the lack of time left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
87%
(-3%)
Less than $90
13%
(+3%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
another spike could push this over the edge into bin 2.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(+1%)
Yes
99%
(-1%)
No
Updating to back a little more uncertainty based on @ctsats prompting
Files
Nicolò has expressed a reasonable objection about my update here: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/122654 (as I say underneath, I have already submitted a clarification request).
Files
reducing my confidence a little