haven't seen significant updates so increasing bin 1 while staying relatively close to the crowd.
-0.401726
Relative Brier Score
250
Forecasts
57
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 6 | 17 | 248 | 50 | 590 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 61 |
Questions Forecasted | 4 | 7 | 32 | 8 | 72 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 118 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
78%
(+8%)
Less than or equal to 49
22%
(-8%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
(+3%)
Less than $90
7%
(-3%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
updating as time runs out
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(-2%)
Less than $90
10%
(+2%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
reducing my confidence a little
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
92%
(+10%)
Less than $90
8%
(-10%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Will increment bin 1 by about 1% per day from here unless the prices gets significantly closer to $90.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
(+7%)
Less than $90
18%
(-7%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
updating on the lower price
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(-12%)
Less than $90
25%
(+12%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
reacting to recent price increases.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
updating based on the lack of time left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files