-0.013
Relative Brier Score
94
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 2 | 30 | 705 | 94 | 1876 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 46 | 2 | 126 |
Questions Forecasted | 2 | 25 | 96 | 35 | 211 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 4 | 125 | 7 | 249 |
Definitions |
1,836 events in the last 10 months (with only one week of March being reported) would give a final event count of 2,203.
Slight changes are being made in my forecast because of the decreasing tendency we have seen in the last few months. At the same time, I´m increasing the mid-anchor and reducing the likelihood of the last one.
Confirmed previous forecast
Given the recent past of mobilizations against the regiment, I would say there is a probability, however, the likelihood of this happening is EXTREMELY low given the recent past, and the fact that the (I would consider) massive mobilization that took place after Mahsa Amini´s death did not damage the pillars on which the regime stands today.
Maintaining the forecast percentages for the time being. One thing to consider is that the elections took place a couple of days ago and could spike the data for this month.
Reducing because of the time elapsed
Reducing even further with the rationale of @cmeinel, exposed here: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/122686
Leaving more space for the possibility of a mere "announcement".