Confirmed previous forecast
0.005592
Relative Brier Score
26
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 128 | 26 | 399 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 18 | 8 | 48 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 46 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-2%)
Yes
95%
(+2%)
No
No obvious change in the incentives at play here.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-2%)
Yes
93%
(+2%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+20%)
Less than or equal to 49
9%
(-19%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
1%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Not much time left on this and with the March data update, it should easily stay below 49, barring any major conflagration.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-6%)
Yes
Apr 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2024
96%
(+6%)
No
Apr 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2024
Probably should have been lower earlier - moving down based on the ever declining traffic in the Suez - looks like the trend toward avoiding the area is continuing unabated and I imagine it is particularly so for Israeli ships.
From January: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/suez-canal-traffic-drops-to-lowest-since-2021-blockage-1.2023144
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 17, 2024 07:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 17, 2024 to Sep 17, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Mar 17, 2024 to Sep 17, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 7, 2024 09:40PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-6%)
Yes
Mar 7, 2024 to Sep 7, 2024
90%
(+6%)
No
Mar 7, 2024 to Sep 7, 2024
First round of the election has come and gone.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-10%)
Yes
90%
(+10%)
No
State of Emergency keeps getting pushed further out (last update Jan 31) and I assume that moves the census further out, moving a potential election further out. (And there doesn't seem to be any genuine interest from leadership in an election anyways...)
Files
Reducing, even with the clarification. Seems like any election would lean more toward the "sham" end of things than a genuine election with a few cancelled areas due to violence...
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmars-next-election-may-not-be-nationwide-junta-chief-says-2024-03-25/