johnnycaffeine

I'll go up a little on the recent missile attack. From a historical standpoint,  I'm anchored somewhat on the 1991 scud attack on Israel from Iraq, which did not lead to any overt retaliations by Israel. 

I'm getting the same numbers as @martinsluis ... 2,070 of these events over 316 days, which equals 6.55 per day. So just doing that math, 365 times 6.55 equals 2,390.75. Of course, 2024 was a leap year,  so my math might be off a little, but close enough.

In the past month the pace of these events is 7 a day or so, which means it's not slowing down and the momentums in place should carry it over 2250 fairly easily. 

Checking the news from Colombia, protests against the president have intensified in recent weeks, with a lot more protests scheduled for this weekend, so my expectation is that this pace should certainly continue.

Matching the Crowd on this, with Iran doing the apparent missile and drone attack on Israeli military targets. There's a lot that's not known at the moment. But it's important not to be overconfident from a forecasting standpoint.

Raising these odds on all the volatility right now.

This will pretty much resolve at this point.

This certainly should go up a bit based on the flying drones. 

These odds are certainly higher now if indeed Iran has launched a direct drone attack. It's likely the US will pressure Israel not to directly respond though.

Axios is reporting that drones might be in the air and on their way. I'm temporarily raising this based on that news.

Re-affirming my 1%. This expires next month. On the other hand of course, all that would be required is the NY Times/BBC/CBC to make some announcement like "this one minor section in one region will have this enabled in a far-off date." 

Too many experts are saying this risk is elevated so I'd better bump this back up. There is footage on Twitter (example) of Hezbollah attacks in the past few hours.