43rd
Accuracy Rank

pugcaster

0.753616

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 220 0 474
Comments 0 0 35 0 59
Questions Forecasted 0 0 56 0 116
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 33 1 44
 Definitions
New Badge
pugcaster
earned a new badge:

Monthly Power Forecaster - Dec 2023

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

There is no clear reason now for China who has a monopoly almost on dysprosium oxide to raise the prices over $1000

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Why might you be wrong?

This could change due to change in diplomatic relations or competition.

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New Prediction

Definitely depends on the lawsuit, however twitter is most likely to do it first.

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New Prediction

no clear reason for this to happen

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New Prediction

Based largely on @o-maverick @johnnycaffeine  and @DKC 

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New Prediction
pugcaster
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 749
1%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
12%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
80%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
7%
More than or equal to 3000
Why do you think you're right?

The average protests and riots that ACLED has recorded in Colombia from  1 June 2023 to now is 200 with the min being 38 and maximum being 345 on any given month, taking the min, avg and max and simply multiplying it by 12 months we get 456 min, 2405 avg, and 4140 max during this span. However it has been on a downward trend on average since october. The current total so far is 1403 and there are only 5 months left.

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Why might you be wrong?

new events

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New Prediction
pugcaster
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
65%
Less than or equal to 499
34%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
1%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 2000
Why do you think you're right?

The average battles and incidents of violence against civilians that ACLED has recorded in Venezuela from  1 June 2023 to now is 32 with the min being 4 and maximum being 43 on any given month, taking the min, avg and max and simply multiplying it by 12 months we get 48 min, 386 avg, and 586 max during this span. However it has been on a downward trend on average since july.

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Why might you be wrong?

something could escalate

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New Prediction
pugcaster
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
63%
Less than $90
26%
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
8%
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
2%
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
1%
More than or equal to $120

Current price is 80.850, and the trend is downward mostly, the highest it has been last was on September 18, 93.290, and given that any 100,000 barrel a day decline in Iran’s production would raise the Brent oil price by over $1 a barrel it seems somewhat unlikely the price will raise above 90

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New Prediction

While there have been diplomatic efforts and precedents for shorter pauses, significant obstacles such as Israel's and Hamas' stated goals, high demands, existential motivations, and low trust between the parties make a  pause that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days somewhat difficult to achieve.

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New Prediction
pugcaster
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jan 31, 2024 06:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024
99% (0%)
No
Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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