Passage of time
0.163
Relative Brier Score
23
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 3 | 4 | 120 | 23 | 287 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
Questions Forecasted | 3 | 4 | 41 | 16 | 104 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 27 |
Definitions |
Even though China is increasing restrictions on American technological components and Microsoft is facing political pressure to leave China (which is why I'm slightly raising the odds), I still find it unlikely that this will happen by the end of this year.
time
Adjusting the probabilities in response to the latest news, which show that Iran has slightly reduced its stockpile in the last quarter. However, it is difficult to assess the trend since no one knows the reason. There might be a secret agreement. It's possible they're trying to reduce tensions. It's possible they intend to escalate tensions, but use this as an argument of innocence. For now, it is very difficult to evaluate.
"VIENNA, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Iran's stock of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade has shrunk, bringing it below the theoretical threshold at which it could produce three atom bombs, but problems with inspectors persist, reports by the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Monday.
Although the International Atomic Energy Agency has said Iran's enrichment of uranium to up to 60% continues apace, Iran diluted more than it produced in the past three months, one of the two confidential quarterly reports to member states said.
The IAEA reports did not give a reason for the so-called downblending of 31.8 kg of material enriched to up to 60%, after which the stock fell by an estimated 6.8 kg since the last such quarterly reports to 121.5 kg.
"At the beginning of the year they decided to do a downblending ... A couple of weeks later they did another downblending, this time with a smaller amount," a senior diplomat said when asked about the reports seen by Reuters, adding that it was not clear why Iran had done it."
Confirmed previous forecast
Very unlikely considering that for Saudi Arabia any deal in this direction must lead to the creation of a Palestinian state.
Time decay. Odds are lower than 1%.
Saudi Arabia would be the least unlikely, yet it still seems quite distant according to recent news.
Generally confirming the previous forecast, with a slight increase to follow the crowd.
Passage of time