Major update to consider passage of time; given the trend level, it's unlikley to break the 749 threshold by June.
1.043322
Relative Brier Score
94
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 30 | 31 | 342 | 94 | 634 |
Comments | 1 | 1 | 41 | 7 | 102 |
Questions Forecasted | 29 | 29 | 88 | 38 | 164 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 55 | 3 | 111 |
Definitions |
Why do you think you're right?
Updating to align with market trends and proximity to close date.I think there is certainly a possibility of it breaching $90 by the 31st, provided that the most recent spike for $5 took place over a 1 week period two weeks ago. EIA short term outlook still has it around 87 -- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
Why might you be wrong?
Major update -- I admit I haven't been tracking this one closely, but it's unlikely to break the 500 threshold.
Minor update given passage of time. Since an Rafah invasion has not yet taken place, I've increased the probability of a pause, but I still think a 30+ day cease fire is unlikely before the end of the year. I'll reconsider and update after Eid.
Return to my original forecast.
Revision due to my fat fingering the ACLED website.
nice way to describe that issue 😂