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35th
Accuracy Rank
coastbylight
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2020 Season
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2024 Season
Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Quantum Computing
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024)
-0.021073
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?
-0.002882
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
0.278219
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
0.143562
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
-0.000269
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC
Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?
-0.018417
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?
-0.022189
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen?
0.170102
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran?
-0.013501
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo?
0.402518
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?
0.138304
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces?
-0.00081
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?
0.026125
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces?
-0.000683
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?
0.444054
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
0.123646
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?
0.002692
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
0.000151
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023?
-0.009332
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?
-0.000529
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