Moldova is the most likely because of Transnistria. They welcome Russian support and Russia has been open about its aims to annex Transnistria, it all depends on the outcome of the Ukraine war. Armenia is weak and unimportant for Russia, plus it has tensions with Turkey/Azerbaijan. Georgia’s government is pro-Russian so likely won’t be invaded, and Kazakhstan is weak and sparsely populated so Russia will probably use economic coercion over military.
0.139035
Relative Brier Score
53
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 27 | 253 | 67 | 598 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 29 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 25 | 74 | 29 | 146 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Moldova
1%
Armenia
1%
Georgia
1%
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Russia won’t attack NATO while Ukraine is ongoing, it’s too risky. Moldova and non NATO members are much more likely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Trump gets elected, Russia may think that this is their chance
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
100%
(0%)
No
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Johnson is putting his career on the line for this. I believe after his speech and Democrats support that this will happen
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+100%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
0%
(-100%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
After the strike on Damascus this is certain
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
This isn’t happening at this point